刘蕴 翰悦缅甸评论

    2018年3月21日，路透社官网

    路透社：吴廷觉总统今天突然宣布辞职，你有何分析？

    刘蕴：The discussion about the replacement has been around for a while so this was well expected, It should have a fairly limited impact on the political equation in Myanmar.有关总统更换的问题已经讨论多时，这是外界充分预料到的事情。该事件对缅甸政局影响有限。

    2018年3月26日（未发表）

    德国新闻社：Was Htin Kyaw’s presidency a success?廷觉的总统任期是否成功？

    刘蕴：Essentially I do not think his presidency was a success. He was chosen by ASSK to fill this position as a interim arrangement. He ruled more or less as a pure puppet of the lady. 实实在在地说我认为他担任总统一职并不成功。昂山素季挑选他只是一个临时安排。他在行动上也完全是一个礼仪性质的总统。

    德国新闻社：What does the change in presidency mean for Aung San Suu Kyi and her role “above” the presidency?此次更换总统对昂山素季意味着什么？

    刘蕴：I believe ASSK plans to "delegate" more authority to the coming president, but she will still be "above" the president. 我认为昂山素季的计划是让新任总统拥有更大权力，但是她仍然“在总统之上”。

    德国新闻社：What does it mean for the military? 这对军方意味着什么？

    刘蕴：For military, the political landscape of power-sharing has not changed. However, they must prepared to deal with a more ambitious president. 对军方来说，政治权力的分配格局没有改变。但是军方必须准备好迎接一位雄心勃勃的总统。

    德国新闻社：How can we expect Win Myint’s leadership style to differ from Htin Kyaw’s and what will this mean for Myanmar? 温敏的执政风格会与廷觉有何不同，这对缅甸有何影响？

    刘蕴：Unlike Htin Kyaw, Win Myint will lead this country not only as a president empowered by the consititution, but also a successor to the lady.  与廷觉不同，温敏领导国家的身份不仅仅是宪法授权的总统，还将是昂山素季的接班人。

    德国新闻社：What does Win Myint’s election say about the balance of power in Myanmar? 温敏的当选对缅甸的权力平衡有何影响？

    刘蕴：His presidency will not change Myanmar's status of internal power divisions.温敏的当选不会改变缅甸的权力分配现状。