如果这天真的到来,中国周边这些国家会怎么办?
如果这天真的到来,中国周边这些国家会怎么办?
来源: 陈晨晨 环球时报 环球时报
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美国顶尖智库兰德公司近日发布中美军力对比报告,《中美军力记分卡》。报告模拟台海、南沙两大战役,预测潜在冲突的结果。模拟推演发现,过去二十年,中国解放军已经转型为一支有战斗力的现代化军队,如今中国将在近海地区的冲突中略占上风,在远海区域则与美国势均力敌。
环球时报记者陈晨晨专访兰德军力报告首席作者及身处菲、澳、新、印四国的权威智囊,多方解读中国军力上涨及其地缘影响。点击视频 多国权威智囊为你解读中国军力
兰德报告中的中美军力记分卡
五国智囊专访原文中英文对照
Eric Heginbotham|兰德军力报告首席作者
I would expect for the immediate future that the PLA would continue to improve, and that the gap between US and Chinese capabilities will continue to narrow. But the US has enormous residual strengths. So at a minimum there will be a balance for many years to come.我的预测是,短期来看中国军力会继续变强,中美之间的军力差距会变得更小。不过美国军力底子雄厚,双方军力的平衡,至少要过很多年才会实现。
The long-term picture really depends more on the future of the Chinese and US economies, and especially on whether reforms in China are successful.至于长期来看中美军力谁强谁弱,更多取决于两国经济实力,尤其是中国改革成不成功。
I really want to emphasis here that there is a larger purpose of the report that goes beyond who’s gaining or losing ground. The primary purpose was to provide a baseline for leaders in the US and in the Pacific to include China to make better decisions.我想在此强调,兰德这份军力报告,目标不是得失输赢。我们的首先目标是向美国和太平洋地区的领袖们,划出一条底线。想要更好决策 不能把中国排除在外。
In my view, the US and China should not work towards some kind of a so-called G2, or combined dominance of Asia. Unless Japan, Korea and smaller countries of Asia have their voices and interests represented, it will be hard to maintain any kind of a stable peace.我觉得中美不能朝G2方向走,不能中美两个国家主导亚洲。除非日本、韩国还有其他一些亚洲小国的声音和利益得到体现,否则什么样的和平稳定都难以为继。
My chief concern, and one we highlighted in the report, is that the military relationship could become more competitive if it’s not handled well.我的最大担忧,也是报告里强调的,就是中美之间的军事关系一旦处理不好,可能演变成竞赛型关系。
Certain types of weapons, certain types of military strategies, and certain types of military activities can lead to structural instabilities. They can lead to situations in which even if neither side wants conflict, both sides might see advantages to striking or attacking first if they think war is highly likely or inevitable.特定武器,特定战略,以及特定军事行动,都可能引发结构性动荡。即便谁都不想起冲突,一旦双方认定战争再所难免,都可能想要抢占先机,先发制人。
So the need for discussions on these sorts of issues, on military weapons and strategies has grown over time, and I think, will continue to grow in the future.两国需要就军事武器及战略等问题进行更多讨论。我觉得今后这样的讨论需要更多。
Roland G. Simbulan|菲律宾大学教授 知名左翼
The US government usually always exaggerates the strength of its adversaries or rivals to maintain their huge defense budget as global policeman and to maintain Pax Americana globally. The objective is always to maintain total superiority.美国政府一向喜欢夸大对手实力,这样美国才能保持巨额国防开支,才能充任世界警察,主导全球秩序。美国的目标一直是保持总体优势。
China may have increasing quantity in its military strength in both personnel and weapons, and this may be the explanation for the narrowing gap, but the US alwaysmaintains the superiority in the technology of their weapons.中国军力 可能在人员和武器装备上,发生了量的增长,这可能就是中美军力差距为什么缩小了,但在武器技术方面,美国始终保持优势。
They also have the edge in the global deployment of US military forces in various global commands like the Pacific Command, European Command, Southern Command, Africa Command, Space Command, etc.在全球兵力部署方面 美国优势也无人匹敌,美国有分布全球的司令部,比如太平洋司令部、欧洲司令部、南方司令部、非洲司令部、太空司令部等等。
The recent display of China's military prowess during PRC's victory against Japan will further enhance an arms race with the US as well as with other Asian countries. That display of PRC's military force has also been used by Japan to finally pass its law to expand the coverage and functions of Japan's self-defense forces.中国最近进行了纪念抗日战争胜利大阅兵,展示了中国军队威力,这将加剧跟美国以及亚洲其他国家的军备竞赛。中国大阅兵已经被日本利用了,日本终于借此通过新安保法,来扩大自卫队的规模和职责。
In the next 10-15 years, the arms race between the US and china will intensify, but of course, the US will be constrained by weaknesses of its economy in further increasing its unrivalled annual defense budget.未来十到十五年,中美之间的军备竞赛会加剧。当然美国也有掣肘,美国年度国防预算眼下全球无敌,但它要想继续增加,就会受到国内经济疲态的限制。
The increasing military strength of China will only lead to the strengthening and long-delayed modernization of the external defense capabilities of the armed forces of the Philippines. 对菲律宾而言,中国军力上涨只有一个结果,就是导致菲律宾武装部队实力跟着涨,导致菲律宾武装部队终于要实现现代化,这种现代化已经拖了太久太久。
It will also strengthen US-Japan-Philippine security relations and where the Philippine government will invite US and Japanese forces to use Philippine territory as military base. This is the outcome of the perceived aggressiveness of its neighbor, China. 中国军力上涨,还会推动美国、日本、菲律宾在安保方面抱成一团。菲律宾政府会主动邀请美国和日本军队使用菲律宾领土作为它们的军事基地。这一切的原因都是:在菲律宾政府眼中,中国这个邻居咄咄逼人。
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Hugh White|澳大利亚国立大学教授
I think the new Rand report into the development of China’s military power and its relations to the US military is a very significant document. It’s correct in its conclusion that China’s aggregate military capabilities are still below America’s, but that China’s very significant enhancements in particular capability areas have made a decisive difference to the military balance between the US and China in the Western Pacific.
我觉得兰德公司关于中国军力以及中美军事关系的新报告十分重要。兰德报告的结论是正确的:中国整体军力仍在美国之下,但中国在特定领域取得了长足增长,这让中美在西太平洋的军事平衡,发生了决定性的反转。
I think what it really means is that China is now in a position China is now in a position to raise the costs and risks to the US of projecting power into the waters around China. I think this makes the fundamental difference to the military balance between the two countries in the Western Pacific.to the military balance between the US and China in the Western Pacific 兰德报告其实点出的是,以中国现在的军力,如果美国再往中国周边水域投放兵力,美国的成本比过去大,风险比过去高。中美两国在西太平洋的军事平衡,发生了根本性反转。
I think that’s really important because the military foundation of US strategic primacy in Asia has always been America’s capacity to project power by sea into the Western Pacific. As China’s capacity to stop America doing that grows, the military foundation of the US primacy in Asia is eroding. I think that has huge implications for the whole way the region develops. 美国在亚洲地区之所以掌握战略主动,根基就是美国在西太平洋地区投放军力的能力。现在中国越来越有能力阻止美国去投放,美国在亚洲掌握主动的军事基础受到了破坏。这一点极大地影响整个地区的局势演进。
It doesn't mean Australia needs to feel threatened by China’s capacity to project power by sea itself, because as the Rand report makes it clear that China’s capacity to project power by sea over long distances remains rather low. 并不是说中国海上投放军力的能力本身要让澳大利亚受到威胁。正如兰德报告明确指出,中国海上远程投放军力的能力仍然十分薄弱。
But because it does so much to alter the military balance between the US and China in the Western Pacific, and particularly it undermines the US military primacy, it brings closer to the time in which the US can no longer sustain preeminence in Asia, which has been so important to Australia in previous decades, 但正因中国军队海上投放军力的能力让中美在西太平洋的军事平衡发生了决定性反转,尤其是破坏了美国的军事主动权,美国距离它在亚洲彻底丧失优势地位,剩下的时间越来越少。而在过去几十年里,美国的优势地位对澳大利亚至关重要。
And it brings closer to the time in which Australia will start having to think what kind of order in Asia it would like to see emerge in the time when the military capabilities between the two countries are more evenly matched. 澳大利亚离重新思考剩下的时间也越来越少了。澳大利亚需要考虑的是,等到中美军力伯仲难分那一天,它想要看到的,究竟是怎样一种亚洲秩序。
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Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan|印度观察家研究基金会高级研究员
The gap between the US and China have narrowed down. in the military domain has come down. The Chinese higher growth rate, larger economy, meant that it is able to devote a larger proportion of its expenditure, of its resources, into military modernization. 毫无疑问,中美之间的军力差距缩小了。中国的经济增长更快,体量更大,也就是说中国有能力花更多钱、投更多资源,去推动军事现代化。
Other countries are getting more anxious about China’s military power, China’s growing postures which have not been particularly confident and reassuring in a sense.
其他国家越来越焦虑了,对于中国的军力、中国的态度,其他国家在某种程度上缺乏信心,缺乏安全感。
So other countries are also trying to do catching-up game with China, which essentially boils down to some sort of military competition between China and other powers in Asia, the major and even the smaller powers in the Asia-Pacific. 于是这些国家努力追赶中国。这种追赶归根结底演变成为一场在中国和亚洲其他大国之间的军事竞赛,跟中国在亚太地区竞赛的有大国,也有小国。
India likely will be concerned about these developments, the growing Chinese military power, and India has not been able to respond in an appropriate manner. India has had its own issues, there are several internal security issues, internal economic issues. 印度可能会担忧不已。对中国军力增长,印度一直没找到适当的方式作出反应。印度有自己的问题,国内安全问题,还有国内经济问题。
The fact that India still lacks an effective industrial manufacturing base including in the defense sector has meant that India still continues to look at foreign procurement and that’s the mainstay of India’s defense preparedness. Something like 70 percent of India’s defense capabilities are done through foreign procurement. 在工业制造方面,印度仍然缺乏有力基础,包括在国防领域,印度还在对外采购。对外采购是印度国防战备的支柱。印度百分之七十的国防装备能力,是通过对外采购实现的。
So India will continue to be concerned, but unless it gets its house in order, it’s unlikely India will pose any sort of challenge in the coming years. 印度会持续担忧中国军力的增长。不过只要印度一天不把自己内部问题整顿好,未来这些年印度都构不成什么挑战。
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Ei Sun Oh|新加坡南洋理工大学资深研究学者 马来西亚总理前政治秘书
I think despite the latest findings by the Rand report that the gap between the US and China in terms of military capability is narrowing, both counties should not fixate themselves too much on comparing the relative military strength. 我觉得尽管兰德报告的结论说中美之间军力差距缩小了,两国都不要把自己框在较量军力上。
This is no more a world whereby we are experiencing Cold War. This is instead a world where we are experiencing acute economic slowdown. 现在已经不是冷战时代了,这个世界正在目睹急剧的经济衰退。
China, as the world’s largest economic locomotive, if not the world’s largest economic power, should continue to focus on harnessing its national will in developing both its own as well as the world’s economy. 中国即使不是世界第一大经济体,也是世界经济第一大火车头。中国应该把国家意志更多用来发展自己经济,发展世界经济。
The US, on the other hand, should recognize that China indeed is a rising power, and is not to be taken lightly, so it should engage China in terms of, for example, cooperative efforts, such as cooperation in counter-terrorism where both countries are major victims. 而美国应该认识到,中国真的在崛起,它没法轻视中国,应该更多地跟中国合作,比如反恐,这方面两国都是受害者。
As well as the Southeast Asian countries, we have to recognize that China is indeed a major regional power to stay, and we too have to very proactively engage China especially economically to deeper economic cooperation with China, so as to sort of promote more understandings between both sides, and thereby avoid misunderstandings especially in military terms. 对于东南亚国家来说,我们应该认识到,中国将一直作为地区主要大国存在,这个地位不会消失。我们也要非常积极地跟中国合作,尤其在经济上,要深化经济合作来增进理解,通过经济合作避免军事上的误解。
We should also help China harness its growing military power in, from our point of view, in more productive areas such as anti-piracy and humanitarian efforts 我们也要帮助中国,把军力用于更富成效的领域,比如打击海盗,实施人道救援。 ↑
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