来源：徽剑

本文来自英国卫报（2011/sep/30）

WikiLeaks cables: Americans funded groups that stalled Burma dam project

维基解密电报：美国人资助缅甸大坝项目受阻的组织

Newly leaked document reveals support for opponents of proposed Myitsone dam, widely seen as a Chinese project

最新泄露的文件显示，美国为反对拟议中的密松大坝项目的人士提供了支持，该项目被普遍认为是中国的一个项目。

The US embassy in Rangoon funded some of the civil society groups in the Burmese region that forced the government to suspend a controversial Chinese dam on the Irrawaddy river, according to a US diplomatic cable.

据一份美国外交电报称，美国驻仰光大使馆资助了缅甸地区的一些民间团体，这些团体迫使缅甸政府暂停了伊洛瓦底江上一个有争议的中国大坝项目。

The January 2010 cable on the $3.6bn (£2.3bn) Myitsone dam project noted that local groups had "voiced strong opposition to the project on economic, environmental and cultural grounds and have organised grassroots campaigns to rally others to their cause".

这份 2010 年 1 月关于耗资 36 亿美元（23 亿英镑）的密松大坝项目的密电指出，当地团体 “以经济、环境和文化为由强烈反对该项目，并组织了基层运动，号召其他人支持他们的事业”。

The cable, signed by then US charge d'affaires, Larry Dinger, went on to say: "An unusual aspect of this case is the role grassroots organisations have played in opposing the dam, which speaks to the growing strength of civil society groups in Kachin state, including recipients of embassy small grants."

这份由当时的美国临时代办拉里-丁格（Larry Dinger）签署的电报继续说道：“此案的一个不同寻常之处在于基层组织在反对修建大坝的过程中所发挥的作用，这说明克钦邦的民间社会团体，包括接受大使馆小额赠款的团体的力量在不断壮大”。

Dinger said that although Burma had launched a number of hydropower projects to address its acute electricity shortages, the Myitsone dam was widely seen as a Chinese project, with China the principal beneficiary.

丁格说，尽管缅甸启动了一系列水电项目以解决严重的电力短缺问题，但密松大坝被广泛视为一个中国项目，中国是主要受益者。

"Given past evidence from foreign investments in Burma's energy sector, it is very likely, as many locals believe, that both construction of the dam and the energy it produces will primarily benefit Chinese companies and consumers, rather than Burmese," he said.

他说：”鉴于过去外国投资缅甸能源行业的证据，正如许多当地人所认为的那样，大坝的建设及其生产的能源很有可能主要惠及中国公司和消费者，而不是缅甸人。

Presciently, he added: "Dam-related social unrest is a possibility in light of the already-tense political situation in Kachin state and the dislocations the project is expected to cause."

他还先知先觉地补充道："鉴于克钦邦本已紧张的政治局势以及该项目预计将造成的混乱，与大坝有关的社会动荡是有可能发生的。

上面是英国卫报的新闻报道内容

下面是英国卫报曝光的维基解密的几份电报（美国驻缅甸大使馆发出）

US embassy cables: how Rangoon office helped opponents of Myitsone dam

美国大使馆电报：仰光办事处如何帮助密松大坝的反对者

Fri 30 Sep 2011 08.26 EDT

243770

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON

000030

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, OES, EEB, AND INR

PACOM FOR FPA

EO 12958 DECL: 01/14/2020

TAGS BM, ECON, ENRG, PGOV, PHUM, PREL, SENV

SUBJECT: BURMA: GRASSROOTS OPPOSITION TO CHINESE-BACKED DAM IN NORTHERN BURMA

REFTEL A: 08 RANGOON 815

REFTEL B: 09 RANGOON 447 RANGOON 00000030

001.2 of 002 Classified By: P/E Officer Adam Murray for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Summary

星期五 30 九月 2011 08.26 美国东部时间

243770

C O N F I D E N T I A L 第 01 节 OF 02 仰光

000030

SIPDIS

电子保护/水文、钻探、海洋、环境和自然资源部

PACOM FOR FPA

第 12958 号执行令，宣布日期：2020 年 1 月 14 日

标签 BM, ECON, ENRG, PGOV, PHUM, PREL, SENV

议题：缅甸：基层民众反对中国在缅甸北部支持修建大坝

REFTEL A: 08 RANGUON 815

REFTEL B: 09 RANGUON 447 RANGUON 00000030

001.2 of 002 Classified By：P/E Officer Adam Murray for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

摘要

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1. (C) On December 21, workers broke ground on the controversial new Myitsone Dam project in Kachin State in northern Burma.

1. (C) 12 月 21 日，工人们在缅甸北部克钦邦为备受争议的新密松大坝项目破土动工。

The Myitsone Dam is one of seven new hydroelectric projects on the upper Irrawaddy River and will be the first dam on the mainstream Irrawaddy. The project is a joint collaboration between Burma's Asia World Company and the Chinese Power Investment Corporation.

密松大坝是伊洛瓦底江上游七个新水电项目之一，也将是伊洛瓦底江主流上的第一个大坝。该项目由缅甸亚洲世界公司和中国电力投资集团公司共同合作。

Planned construction of the dam in an area of ecological diversity, ethnic tensions, and seismic activity, as well as the expected relocation of an estimated 15,000 people, has sparked a groundswell of grassroots opposition. End summary.

大坝计划在生态多样性、民族关系紧张和地震活动频繁的地区修建，预计将迁移约 15000 人，这引发了基层民众的强烈反对。结束。

Serving Burma's People? （徽剑评：这句疑似卫报的点评语）

为缅甸人民服务？

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2. (U) The GOB has embarked on a number of hydropower projects in recent months to address the acute electricity shortages that plague the country. On December 21, Asia World, a Burmese company, and the Chinese Power Investment Corporation (CPIC) broke ground on the Myitsone Dam project.

2. (U) 近几个月来，缅甸政府已开始实施一系列水电项目，以解决困扰该国的严重电力短缺问题。12 月 21 日，缅甸公司亚洲世界（Asia World）和中国电力投资集团公司（CPIC）的密松大坝项目破土动工。

(Note: Asia World and its owner, regime crony Steven Law, are on the Specially Designated Nationals list maintained by the Department of Treasury. End note.)

(注：亚洲世界公司及其所有者、缅甸政府亲信史蒂文-罗（Steven Law）被列入美国财政部特别指定国民名单。注完）。

The dam is expected to generate 3,600-4,100 MW of electricity worth an estimated USD 500 million annually. It will be the largest hydropower project in Burma. CPIC is also collaborating on six other hydropower projects on the upper Irrawaddy.

该大坝预计每年可发电 3,600-4,100 兆瓦，价值约为 5 亿美元。这将是缅甸最大的水电项目。CPIC 还与伊洛瓦底江上游的其他六个水电项目开展合作。

3. (U) The Kachin Development Network Group (KDNG), an NGO based in Burma and Thailand, has estimated that the Myitsone Dam reservoir will cover 766 square kilometres and displace some 15,000 people. The group expects several roads, bridges, and important cultural sites in the area to be inundated.

3. (U) 据设在缅甸和泰国的非政府组织克钦发展网络小组（KDNG）估计，密松大坝水库将占地 766 平方公里，并将导致约 15,000 人流离失所。该组织预计，该地区的多条道路、桥梁和重要文化遗址将被淹没。

Or the Chinese?（徽剑评：这句疑似卫报的点评语）

还是中国人？

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4. (C) The GOB has actively encouraged foreign investment in hydropower projects, with the majority of contracts going to Chinese companies (Ref A).

4. (C) 缅甸政府积极鼓励外商投资水电项目，大部分合同都签给了中国公司（参考文献 A）。

Although the state-run New Light of Myanmar reports the electricity will be used to meet domestic demand, few here believe it. As reported in Ref A, foreign joint venture agreements vary widely, but most stipulate that approximately 75 percent of any electricity generated will be sold or offered as compensation to foreign investors.

尽管国营的《缅甸新光报》报道说这些电力将用于满足国内需求，但这里很少有人相信。如参考文献 A 所述，外国合资企业的协议差异很大，但大多数协议都规定，所发电量的约 75% 将作为补偿出售给外国投资者。

In our recent meeting with the Biodiversity and Nature Conservation Association (BANCA), Chairman U Uga voiced a commonly shared view that China will be the recipient of much of the power generated by the new hydropower projects.

在我们最近与生物多样性和自然保护协会（BANCA）的会谈中，U Uga 主席表达了一个共同的观点，即中国将是新水电项目所发电量的主要接收国。

He said the Chinese are responding to concerns about climate change by targeting development of significant hydropower from Southeast Asia.

他说，中国正在通过瞄准东南亚的大量水电开发来回应对气候变化的担忧。

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5. (C) Chinese construction projects abroad routinely utilize many Chinese laborers. Reportedly, the Myitsone Dam project will be no exception. The Rural Reconstruction Movement Organization (RRMO), an NGO in Kachin State, reports that barracks for 20,000 Chinese workers are currently being built near the dam site.

5. (C) 中国在海外的建筑项目经常使用大量中国劳工。据报道，密松大坝项目也不例外。据克钦邦的非政府组织 “农村重建运动组织”（Rural Reconstruction Movement Organization，RRMO）报告，目前正在大坝工地附近修建可容纳 20,000 名中国工人的营房。

An Emerging Grassroots Opposition（徽剑评：这句疑似卫报的点评语）

新兴的基层反对派

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6. (C) Local groups have voiced strong opposition to the project on economic, environmental, and cultural grounds and have organized grassroots campaigns to rally others to their cause.

6. (C) 当地团体以经济、环境和文化为由强烈反对该项目，并组织了基层运动，号召其他人支持他们的事业。

In October 2009, RRMO and the Kachin Public Youth Organization conducted two anti-dam prayer meetings. They then enlisted the support of 50 local pastors to collect the signatures of over 4,100 local residents who oppose the project.

2009 年 10 月，RRMO 和克钦邦公共青年组织举行了两次反水坝祈祷会。随后，他们争取到 50 位当地牧师的支持，收集了 4100 多名反对该项目的当地居民的签名。

The petition was forwarded to the Chinese government, but was not submitted to the GOB.

请愿书被转交给了中国政府，但并未提交给缅甸政府。

After the December groundbreaking ceremony, exile press reports emerged that villagers were forced to attend the ceremony despite their opposition.

12 月的奠基仪式结束后，流亡媒体报道称，尽管村民们表示反对，但他们还是被迫参加了仪式。

Student groups reportedly tried to disrupt the ceremony by distributing anti-dam leaflets and posters.

据报道，学生团体试图通过散发反水坝传单和海报来破坏仪式。

Additional anti-dam prayer and advocacy campaigns are in the works.

更多的反水坝祈祷和宣传活动正在进行中。

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7. (C) A number of armed ethnic groups remain active in Kachin State, including the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO). The KIO has signed a ceasefire agreement with the GOB but has thus far rebuffed GOB efforts to restructure into a "Border Guard Force" ahead of the 2010 elections (Ref B). To date, the KIO has not taken a public position on the dam issue.

(C) 克钦邦仍有一些少数民族武装团体在活动，其中包括克钦独立组织。克钦独立组织已与缅甸政府签署了停火协议，但迄今为止一直拒绝缅甸政府在 2010 年选举前将其改组为 “边防卫队 ”的努力（参考文献 B）。迄今为止，克钦独立组织尚未就大坝问题公开表态。

Environmental Impact Unknown

环境影响未知

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8. (C) The effects of the Myitsone project on the regional environment are difficult to ascertain.

8. (C) 密松项目对地区环境的影响难以确定。

Neither the GOB nor the contractors have released an environmental impact assessment, and our contacts are skeptical that a true assessment will ever be conducted. (Note: Burma has neither a consolidated environmental law nor legal requirements for environmental or social impact assessments.)

缅甸政府和承包商均未公布环境影响评估报告，我们的联系人也对是否会进行真正的评估持怀疑态度。(注：缅甸既没有统一的环境法，也没有关于环境或社会影响评估的法律规定）。

In addition to the expected inundation-related damage, KDNG speculates that reduced sediment flows and altered flooding patterns will have an impact downstream, in the rice-producing Irrawaddy Delta.

除了与淹没相关的预期损害外，KDNG 还推测，泥沙流量的减少和洪水模式的改变将对下游的伊洛瓦底三角洲稻米产区造成影响。

The Irrawaddy is also home to the endangered Irrawaddy Dolphin, and the GOB has designated a 43-mile length of river north of Mandalay as a protected habitat.

伊洛瓦底江也是濒临灭绝的伊洛瓦底江海豚的栖息地，缅甸政府已将曼德勒以北 43 英里长的河流指定为受保护的栖息地。

Absent an environmental impact assessment, the project's impact downstream is unclear.

由于缺乏环境影响评估，该项目对下游的影响尚不明确。

Geographical Background

地理背景

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9. (U) The Myitsone Dam is being constructed just below the confluence of the two headwaters of the Irrawaddy, approximately 40 kilometers upstream from the capital of Kachin State, Myitkyina. Much of Burma, especially the mountainous northern region, is rich in biodiversity and is often described as an environmental "hotspot."

9. (U) 密松大坝正在伊洛瓦底江两个源头汇合处的下方修建，距离克钦邦首府密支那上游约 40 公里。缅甸大部分地区，尤其是北部山区，拥有丰富的生物多样性，常被称为环境 “热点”。

The area has a history of seismic instability, with the dam site sitting just 100 kilometers from the Sagaing Fault Line. In August 2008, a 5.3 magnitude earthquake struck the Burma-China border, 65 kilometers to the southeast of Myitkyina.

该地区历来地震频发，大坝所在地距离实皆断层线仅 100 公里。2008 年 8 月，密支那东南 65 公里处的缅中边境发生了 5.3 级地震。

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10. (C) The Myitsone Dam project joins a familiar pattern of Chinese investment in Burma. Given past evidence from foreign investments in Burma's energy sector, it is very likely, as many locals believe, that both construction of the dam and the energy it produces will primarily benefit Chinese companies and consumers, rather than Burmese.

10. (C) 密松大坝项目与中国在缅甸的投资模式如出一辙。鉴于过去外国投资缅甸能源行业的证据，正如许多当地人所认为的那样，该大坝的建设及其生产的能源很有可能主要惠及中国公司和消费者，而非缅甸人。

An unusual aspect of this case is the role grassroots organizations have played in opposing the dam, which speaks to the growing strength of civil society groups in Kachin State, including recipients of Embassy small grants.

这个案例的一个不同寻常之处在于，基层组织在反对大坝的过程中发挥了作用，这说明克钦邦的民间社会团体（包括大使馆小额赠款的接受者）的力量在不断壮大。

Thus far, we have not heard of any GOB reaction to the opposition groups. That is also unusual. In general, the GOB is distrustful of ethnic minority organizations and of any efforts at dissent. We will stay watchful for any GOB negative reaction.

到目前为止，我们还没有听说过缅甸政府对这些反对团体做出任何反应。这也是不寻常的。一般来说，缅甸政府不信任少数民族组织和任何持不同政见者。我们将继续关注缅甸政府的任何负面反应。

Dam-related social unrest is a possibility in light of the already-tense political situation in Kachin State and the dislocations the project is expected to cause.

鉴于克钦邦本已紧张的政治局势以及该项目预计将造成的混乱，与大坝相关的社会动荡是有可能发生的。

（徽剑备注：以上是卫报引用的十份电文内容。）

图片

上面这十份电报很关键：

第七份，明确说了克钦独立组织没掺和“反对密松水电站”。

第十份，明确说了美国给钱。

看完后，可以得出如下结论：

结论一：克钦独立组织并不是反对密松水电站的推手。

结论二：这些反对密松水电站的NGO，拿了美国人的钱。

图片

我们再来看电报里面提到的几个组织：

1、 “农村重建运动组织”（Rural Reconstruction Movement Organization，RRMO）。有意思的是这个组织的活动，频繁出现“牧师”、“祷告”。这个组织，在密松电站停工后，神奇地消失了，部分骨干后来出现在“克钦浸信会”里面。

2、据设在缅甸和泰国的非政府组织克钦发展网络小组（KDNG）。

这个组织有意思的是，它没有任何公开的官方办公地址，不过其部分人员，曾经出现在“文蚌联盟”的活动中。文蚌联盟也是总部在泰国。

3、生物多样性和自然保护协会（BANCA），这是唯一能找到的，事后多年还存在的机构。

4、克钦邦公共青年组织，网上检索没有任何发现，但是检索英文的时候，频繁主动出现“克钦民族组织”，有趣吧？搜索引擎数据是不是有什么猫腻？

备注，还有个没有在电报里面提到的，2010年2月，设在英国的克钦民族组织（Kachin National Organization）在英、日、澳、美等地的缅甸大使馆抗议兴建密松水电站。（这个克钦民族组织有个部队，叫“景颇大地108旅”，跟果敢同盟军是铁杆并肩战友。）

图片

本文，前面列出一些证据和疑点，相信正常的思维的人，都能得出结论。

1、克钦浸信会、克钦民族组织、文蚌联盟等一个不拉。

2、反而是克钦独立组织，被美国大使馆的电报给洗白了。

好吧，今天就到这里，推荐阅读一下之前我写的文章：

我呢，讲过很多次，依照我对缅甸（其实还包括整个东南亚）的了解程度。如果你只是从国内互联网上获取信息，然后发现    我说的内容，跟你知道的内容不一样，那么，基本上只有一种可能，就是我是对的。特别是新关注的读者，不要质疑我，质疑我的人，至少你得是长期生活在缅甸当地，那么你有可能质疑我在某些细节上的错误。

这话听起来口气不小，但是这是事实证明，至少我不会在基本常识上犯错。比如克钦独立组织的领导人，大部分时间都在云南，比如最近恩板腊就在云南养病。

国内绝大多数人不知道这个基本的事实，当你们知道了后，你们还会相信谣言么？一堆头头都在北国，然后指挥武装侵犯北国？不怕被抓起来么？

我对缅甸乃至东南亚的了解，除了我自己曾经到过这些地方外，我们智库还有自己的信息网络，为什么我对同盟军的内部情况了如指掌，因为有两位数的同盟军不同部门人员给我提供信息，甚至可以说，同盟军内部某些东西，彭德仁还不知道的时候，我已经知道了。同样，在克钦、佤邦、乃至缅甸和东南亚其他地方，同样如此。你们看到的，我公众号写的东西，不过是很小的一部分信息而已。

所以，不是我个人如何牛，而是我背靠的是成百上千人。一般的自媒体作者，只能自己去看看社交媒体，或者去飞机找点信息，我是可以直接让当地的人去找信息的。我写的东西，是当地人告诉我的，而且经过其他当地人证实的，那么，我写的东西，其实就是当地人写的，如果不符合当地真实情况，那才是怪事了。

我这个公众号，12万粉丝，我后台看到的数据，应该有3-4万是境外华人读者。我要是胡扯，他们会看么？

我们智库有时候需要在东南亚比如缅北查找一些信息，或者找一些人，或者做一些事情。如果大家有这方面资源，可以跟我沟通一下，介绍一下你的能力、资源，合作有好处哦。常年需要！有红包奉上。

比如查找一下某个电诈之类人员所在的地址，比如查找一下某个电诈之类人员的航班信息、入境信息等等。还有比如到某个电诈等之类场所帮我们确认一些信息。

我们智库可以提供面向海内外企业和私人的商业合作

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